Is the Top In? (FOMC, Tariff Deadline, Jeetevana August)

July 24, 2025

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After an extended July rally, Bitcoin is trapped between 117k–120k with a downtrend forming. Corgil sees a 60–70% chance of a sweep below 115.7k before the next leg higher.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is in step seven of a typical uptrend cycle; six weeks of gains usually precede a two to three week cooloff period.

• Current range 117k–120k has been retested 12 times since July 11; any breakout is immediately bought back.

• Primary scenario: sweep below 115.7k to 113k–114k to liquidate stops, then reclaim and rally toward 119.7k–120k (70% target).

• If correction deepens, buy zone is 112k–108k (previous quarter high to previous month high); ideal entry for two to three month hold.

• Reduce size and trade less over next two to three weeks; nearly $1B in liquidations hit in the last 24 hours as leverage peaked.

• Favored altcoins for correction-bounce play: Ethereum, Dogecoin, Litecoin, XRP, Pangolin, and Solana.

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The breakdown

Bitcoin has spent two weeks inside a 117k–120k range since July 11, printing lower highs with downside deviations bought 12 times. The chart suggests a trend line break is due, and sentiment on Twitter reached euphoric levels at the top of a six-week run—exactly when retail leverage peaks and precedes the mean reversion that appears in nearly every cycle. Corgil estimates a 60–70% probability of a correction within two to three weeks.

The playbook hinges on three tradable scenarios. Bullish (30% probability): chop briefly, break above trend, hold at 120k–121k, pull back to consolidate, and rip toward new all-time highs. Neutral-to-bearish (the main thesis): sweep below the previous week low at 115.7k down to 113k–114k, taking out resting stops and flushing weak longs, then reclaim 115.7k as a buy trigger with a 119.7k target for a 70% take-profit into the Monday high. Bearish: a deeper capitulation toward the 112k–108k zone (previous quarter and month highs) would create the ideal multi-week consolidation before a September–October rip.

The ideal scenario combines intraday shorts at 119.5k–120k with deferred longs at 115.7k reclaim or a full sweep to 112k–108k. The 112k–110.5k zone is where Corgil expects new lows to be called, shorts to capitulate, and the best risk-to-reward entry for a two to three month hold in Ethereum, Dogecoin, Litecoin, XRP, and memes like Pangolin. Even if the correction doesn't materialize, dollar-cost averaging into alts at current levels remains viable for longer-term exposure.

For equities (SPX, DXY), Corgil sees a 30% chance of a direct push to new highs with no pullback and a 60–70% chance of a minor flush down to previous month or quarter highs within five to ten days before Q4 rips. Regardless of which scenario plays out, his core advice is to reduce leverage, do a performance review of your best and worst trades over the past month, and wait for extremities—either a liquidation sweep or a local top—before re-entering conviction size.

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Full breakdown is in the video above. Watch on YouTube →