The Two Lines That Could Change Your Trading Forever

March 13, 2026

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Two moving averages—the EMA 100 and 200—signal trend shifts and entry/exit zones across timeframes. Everything else is noise.

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Key takeaways

• EMA 100 above 200 = bull trend; acceptance below both = bear market. A bearish cross on daily + three-day confirmation = game over for longs.

• On three-day charts: retest of EMA 100 in downtrends is a short entry; retest in uptrends is a long entry. Stops sit on the other side of weekly rejections.

• Current Bitcoin setup: ~70.5–72.6k is support; squeeze to 75–80k would be a de-risk/short opportunity before potential new lows (66k–60k).

• Rolling view up 365 adds confirmation: when price is far from EMA in early bull, rejections are sharp; flattening EMAs + price approaching them = shift to bear.

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The breakdown

The core signal is dead simple: plot EMA 100 (blue) and EMA 200 (red) on three-day, daily, or four-hour charts. When price accepts *below both* and the EMAs cross bearish, you're in a downtrend; longs are exits, shorts are the trade. When price reclaims and holds above both with a bullish cross, you flip to long bias. Corgil walks through the 2024–2026 cycle to show how this played out: the October 10 crash was the exit signal (EMAs started curving down for the first time in months); the subsequent retests of EMA 100 near 111k on the daily were short opportunities; and we are now somewhere in a prolonged consolidation phase, likely 6+ months away from a new bull confirmation.

Right now Bitcoin sits in a critical zone. Support is ~70.5k with resistance clusters at 72.6k and 75–80k. If it holds 70.5 and closes above 72.6, the next target is 78–80k—which Corgil sees as a *de-risk area* (sell longs, set shorts). Seven rejections in the 70.5–72.6 band suggest weak momentum. Break below 70.5 with a retest of the uptrend line = short entry with stops above the weekly rejections, targeting 66k and lower.

The alternative (bullish) scenario: a V-shaped bounce where price builds support above EMA 100, holds a test of EMA 200, then starts holding well above both EMAs as they flatten and curve up. That triggers a bullish cross and a new bull cycle. Corgil assigns this ~25% probability; he favors the mirror-cycle (75%) where consolidation chops everyone for months, then capitulates lower before the bottom forms. On lower timeframes (four-hour, daily), use the same logic but require confirmation from the three-day chart first—lower timeframe signals are less accurate alone.

Bonus tools: rolling view up 365 aligns neatly with EMA 100 and 200 (quarterly opens, yearly opens, monthly highs all cluster on these lines). Key levels are already baked into price rejection zones. Everything else—MACD, RSI, Fibonacci—adds clutter. Use spot accumulation (dollar-cost average) in the 70.5–72.6 range with a 10% stop if you believe the downside is capped; if shorts work from 80k down, you've exited longs there anyway. The entire edge is: don't panic-sell bottoms, don't buy tops. These two lines do that for you.

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Full breakdown is in the video above. Watch on YouTube →