This Bitcoin Move Could Catch Everyone Off Guard

March 4, 2026

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Bitcoin just reclaimed its 30-day rolling MA at 68.4. The next move is a squeeze to 72k and possibly 75–80k, a chop-and-reject back below support, or a brutal bear-trap squeeze that catches longs before rolling into fresh lows.

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Key takeaways

• 68.4 is the pivot: hold above it and Bitcoin likely squeezes into 72k. Drop below and expect a sweep toward 65k or worse.

• 72k is the decision point — rejection here with consolidation could lead to a fast 76–80k squeeze, but acceptance below 71k signals rollover.

• Ethereum, Solana, and Hype show rounded bottoms and acceptance above key EMAs (99-day, 365-day), setting up potential squeeze targets before potential reversals.

• Equities look like a bull-trap setup on 4h: chop, one more squeeze, then a swing short into the 23xx range on SPX.

• Bear-market rallies erase weeks of losses in days, then flash-crash hard — be ready to short the squeeze, not chase it.

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The breakdown

Bitcoin is at an inflection point with three scenarios in play. The first and most straightforward: hold above the 30-day MA at 68.4, chop for support, then squeeze into 72k, the previous high from a few weeks back. If that holds, a fast move into 76–80k is plausible given the inefficiency and short squeeze potential in that range. The 99-day EMA sits around 77–78k, which would be prime shorting territory if we get there.

The second scenario — and the one Corgil finds most interesting — is the bear trap. A squeeze past 75k pulls in fresh bulls, shorts pile on, then a cascade rejection back below 68.4 triggers a sweep down to 65k or fresh lows. This would catch a lot of leverage and volatility traders off guard.

Ethereum, Solana, and Hype all show similar rounded-bottom consolidation patterns with acceptance above key long-term EMAs (365-day and 99-day). Hype in particular is sitting at 32.5 with a 7% stop-loss setup that could run 40–50k if it holds and accepts above these levels. But the pattern mirrors 2022–23 bear-market rallies: violent short squeezes followed by multi-billion liquidations and reversals.

Equities are building a potential BCDE bull-trap pattern on the 4h: a chop, one more squeeze (possibly on ceasefire news), then a swing short into the 23xx range on SPX. Corgil expects this week-to-week, with crypto following the move. Day-by-day price action is the tell — watch for rejections at 72k, acceptance above 32.5 on Hype, and whether equities can hold their 365-day EMA.

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Full breakdown is in the video above. Watch on YouTube →